To the Editor of the St. James’s Gazette
Sir,—Will you allow me to present, to such of your readers as may be suffering from the present epidemic of febris electoralis, a simple formula for calculating the relative gains and losses of the several contending parties—a formula which will take account of a rather perplexing item in the data, viz. the change in the number of seats assigned to a constituency.
This change will not affect the relative gains and losses in any constituency where the seats are shared in the same relative proportions as before: e. g. If a town, which returned 4 Liberals and 2 Conservatives to the last Parliament, now returns 2 Liberals and 1 Conservative, there are no relative gains or losses. But if a town, which formerly returned 5 Liberals, 2 Conservatives, and 1 Independent, has lost 2 of its 8 seats, and now returns 4 Liberals, 1 Conservative, and 1 Independent, it might puzzle some of your readers to estimate the relative gains and losses. They might have a vague consciousness that the Independents, who did hold 1 seat in 8, and now hold 1 in 6, are rather better off, but how much they might be unable to say.
The formula is this. Let be the number of seats formerly assigned to the town, and the new number. Similarly let be the number of seats formerly held by Liberals, and so on. Then the Liberal gain is divided by . If this comes out negative, it is really a loss.
Thus, in the above example, the old set of numbers, , , , are 8, 5, 2, 1, and the new set are 6, 4, 1, 1. Hence the Liberal “gain” is divided by 8, i. e. one-fourth; the Conservative “gain” is divided by 8, i. e. minus one-half; and the Independent “gain” is divided by 8, i. e. one-fourth.
Thus the Conservatives have lost half a seat, which has been shared equally between the Liberals and the Independents.—I am, Sir, your obedient servant,
Lewis Carroll.
December 3.